Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 18:33, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2216 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	TUS 10:31	PDX 13:46	2%	0%	0.0%	98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TUS 06:45 → LAS 08:00WN 860	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132	4h 55m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 05m	98%	87%
United Details →	TUS 05:45 → DEN 08:38UA 2418	2h 49m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	7h 24m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	TUS 16:31 → SLC 19:29DL 3737 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	7h 13m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 02m	99%	84%
American Details →	TUS 05:45 → PHX 06:36AA 2622	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → PDX 12:49AA 1625	7h 04m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766	6h 00m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	TUS 14:29 → SEA 17:44AS 641	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	6h 53m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	TUS 20:00 → LAS 21:25WN 1195	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → PDX 00:35 +1WN 199	4h 35m	64%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON