Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1467 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1467 TUS 07:15 → PHX 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4085 TUS 14:25 → PHX 15:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1467 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 07:15	PHX 08:05	5%	1%	0.5%	92%
AA 2622 American Flight history →	TUS 05:45	PHX 06:36	7%	3%	0.8%	100%
AA 4900 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:04	PHX 08:05	9%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 4187 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 08:39	PHX 09:37	12%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 10:13	PHX 11:14	12%	5%	0.6%	78%
AA 6369 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:40	PHX 12:38	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
MQ 4189 Envoy	TUS 13:41	PHX 14:39	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4126 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 18:33	PHX 19:34	15%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 6373 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 14:59	PHX 16:01	18%	7%	0.6%	83%
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 17:20	PHX 18:23	23%	10%	0.6%	58%
WN 4085 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 14:25	PHX 15:15	28%	5%	0.5%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON