tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2310 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2310 Southwest Flight history → TUS 05:45 SAN 07:05 6% 1% 0.6% 98%
WN 3551 Southwest Flight history → TUS 19:00 SAN 20:20 46% 11% 0.6% 35%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 03m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:45 → PHX 06:36AA 2622 58m Phoenix PHX 07:34 → SAN 08:51AA 2461 3h 06m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → TUS 05:45 → DEN 08:38UA 2418 2h 37m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 56m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → TUS 07:15 → PHX 08:05WN 1467 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → SAN 10:35WN 1677 3h 20m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 50m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → TUS 06:10 → DEN 09:00WN 4059 1h 40m Denver DEN 10:40 → SAN 12:05WN 1700 5h 55m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → TUS 07:04 → PHX 08:05AA 4900 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → SAN 11:47AA 2477 4h 43m 96% 71%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon 1h 09m Portland PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312 6h 58m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUS 18:33 → PHX 19:34AA 4126 · flown by Envoy 46m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 3h 01m 73% 46%
UnitedDetails → TUS 09:04 → SFO 11:25UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 5h 04m 61% 42%
SouthwestDetails → TUS 20:00 → LAS 21:25WN 1195 50m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871 3h 30m 64% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON