Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3679 at 11:53 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 3679 TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 641 TUS 14:29 → SEA 17:44 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3679 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:53	SEA 15:23	13%	5%	0.5%	88%
AS 3361 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:10	SEA 10:37	14%	4%	0.5%	90%
AS 641 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 14:29	SEA 17:44	27%	6%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON