Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5583 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 15:28	SFO 17:50	27%	15%	0.5%	76%
UA 4683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 09:04	SFO 11:25	34%	18%	0.5%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUS 05:45 → DEN 08:38UA 2418	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 19m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	6h 09m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	TUS 16:31 → SLC 19:29DL 3737 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	7h 21m	100%	72%
American Details →	TUS 17:43 → LAX 19:25AA 6372 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 22:32 → SFO 23:59AA 6510 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	TUS 12:30 → LAX 14:15DL 3744 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 17:35 → SFO 18:52DL 1559	6h 22m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 12:00 → SFO 13:26DL 2725	7h 06m	97%	70%
American Details →	TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 11:34 → SFO 13:08AA 6188 · flown by SkyWest	7h 06m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	4h 58m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUS 18:33 → PHX 19:34AA 4126 · flown by Envoy	49m Phoenix	PHX 20:23 → SFO 22:23AA 686	3h 50m	74%	46%
Alaska Details →	TUS 14:29 → SEA 17:44AS 641	52m Seattle	SEA 18:36 → SFO 20:48AS 619	6h 19m	58%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON