tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856 5h 34m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Chicago ORD 09:07 → ATL 12:22UA 530 6h 22m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor 3h 23m Detroit DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983 6h 38m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Chicago ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770 7h 34m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 7h 29m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → TVC 11:54 → BOS 14:15DL 5861 · flown by Republic 2h 15m Boston BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 7h 44m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → TVC 14:08 → DTW 15:19DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Detroit DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053 6h 11m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy 2h 30m Chicago ORD 08:30 → ATL 11:33AA 1363 5h 52m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest 59m Chicago ORD 10:29 → ATL 13:44UA 2684 4h 44m 68% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON