Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5861 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 11:54	BOS 14:15	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 4516 American flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 13:15	BOS 15:30	13%	4%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 09:15 → BOS 12:57UA 1117	6h 57m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 15m	98%	87%
American Details →	TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → BOS 12:07AA 4106 · flown by Envoy	6h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	5h 44m	100%	82%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 12:53 → BOS 16:29UA 794	7h 29m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	8h 25m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 21:59 → BOS 23:59DL 1187	6h 04m	99%	77%
American Details →	TVC 12:29 → ORD 13:00AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → BOS 19:53AA 4384 · flown by Republic	7h 24m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	55m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	5h 20m	55%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON