Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5571 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TVC 13:17	CLT 15:40	12%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TVC 16:01	CLT 18:25	13%	5%	1.0%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 45m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	5h 39m	99%	88%
United Details →	TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	7h 50m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	2h 29m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	5h 30m	100%	86%
American Details →	TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:00 → CLT 11:08AA 3222	5h 27m	97%	83%
American Details →	TVC 12:09 → PHL 14:09AA 5430 · flown by PSA	2h 46m Philadelphia	PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030	6h 49m	100%	82%
American Details →	TVC 16:47 → ORD 17:26AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	7h 12m	100%	81%
American Details →	TVC 12:29 → ORD 13:00AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 16:45 → CLT 19:59AA 1683	7h 30m	98%	77%
American Details →	TVC 13:59 → DCA 15:59AA 4138 · flown by Envoy	3h 08m Washington	DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 3263	6h 50m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	5h 09m	60%	51%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	56m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	4h 50m	40%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON