Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4138 at 13:59, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4138 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TVC 13:59	DCA 15:59	15%	6%	1.4%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 08m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	4h 43m	98%	85%
United Details →	TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:04UA 1381	7h 04m	99%	84%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 22m	100%	84%
American Details →	TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 07:02 → DCA 10:03AA 2965	4h 22m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	TVC 11:54 → BOS 14:15DL 5861 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Boston	BOS 15:45 → DCA 17:49DL 5689 · flown by Republic	5h 55m	94%	80%
United Details →	TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	6h 58m	100%	78%
American Details →	TVC 16:47 → ORD 17:26AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 20:55 → DCA 23:59AA 1187	7h 12m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:55 → DCA 16:34DL 1454	6h 09m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	5h 21m	68%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON