tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1306 at 15:28, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1306 United Flight history → TVC 15:28 DEN 16:27 19% 6% 0.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526 6h 31m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Chicago ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581 5h 45m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → TVC 16:44 → IAH 19:10UA 5238 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Houston IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066 9h 13m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Chicago ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767 8h 05m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 5575 · flown by SkyWest 3h 27m Chicago ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 7h 58m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → TVC 14:18 → ORD 14:45UA 2605 3h 32m Chicago ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 8h 04m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Detroit DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644 6h 49m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292 48m Detroit DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113 5h 02m 86% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767 5h 32m 72% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON