tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2870 at 17:07, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2870 American Flight history → TVC 17:07 DFW 19:09 22% 9% 0.7% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Chicago ORD 08:45 → DFW 11:29UA 528 6h 29m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Chicago ORD 13:05 → DFW 15:48UA 2290 7h 48m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 5575 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Chicago ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793 7h 07m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy 1h 00m Chicago ORD 07:00 → DFW 09:35AA 1902 4h 54m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 7h 40m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → TVC 16:44 → IAH 19:10UA 5238 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Houston IAH 21:37 → DFW 22:59UA 1183 7h 15m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → TVC 12:09 → PHL 14:09AA 5430 · flown by PSA 2h 13m Philadelphia PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 8h 00m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:55 → ORD 15:30AA 6379 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Chicago ORD 19:24 → DFW 22:06AA 3544 · flown by Envoy 8h 11m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TVC 14:18 → ORD 14:45UA 2605 55m Chicago ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793 5h 04m 72% 59%
UnitedDetails → TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest 59m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 5h 12m 68% 58%
UnitedDetails → TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 5h 07m 43% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON