Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 3618 at 13:46, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 3618 United flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 13:46	EWR 16:00	17%	5%	1.4%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 11m	98%	86%
United Details →	TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → EWR 12:06UA 2301	6h 06m	98%	86%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	5h 17m	100%	86%
United Details →	TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	7h 43m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	2h 34m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	5h 29m	100%	79%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 43m Denver	DEN 19:10 → EWR 01:04 +1UA 2767	9h 36m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	5h 30m	97%	73%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 5575 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 16:31 → EWR 20:07UA 485	7h 52m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	5h 21m	60%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON