tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5238 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → TVC 16:44 IAH 19:10 18% 11% 0.9% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 7h 39m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m Chicago ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638 8h 23m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 8h 03m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 5575 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 7h 55m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 3h 08m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 38m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → TVC 14:18 → ORD 14:45UA 2605 3h 00m Chicago ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954 7h 32m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → TVC 13:17 → CLT 15:40AA 5571 · flown by PSA 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935 8h 16m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy 2h 00m Chicago ORD 08:00 → IAH 10:46AA 1909 6h 05m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 5h 30m 72% 60%
UnitedDetails → TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest 55m Chicago ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638 5h 23m 31% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON