Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5638 at 17:19, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 17:19	LGA 19:26	23%	12%	1.5%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	5h 05m	98%	84%
American Details →	TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → LGA 10:16AA 2723	4h 35m	94%	80%
United Details →	TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669	7h 26m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	2h 26m Detroit	DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602	5h 28m	100%	80%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → LGA 14:23UA 1775	5h 23m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	5h 45m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	TVC 11:54 → BOS 14:15DL 5861 · flown by Republic	3h 45m Boston	BOS 18:00 → LGA 19:34DL 5831 · flown by Republic	7h 40m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	5h 42m	93%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON