Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 13:36, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 13:36	MSP 14:14	12%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 4915 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TVC 18:35	MSP 19:14	40%	26%	0.0%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805	5h 36m	98%	87%
American Details →	TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:15 → MSP 10:01AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	5h 20m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 09m	93%	85%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MSP 14:20UA 2749	6h 20m	100%	83%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 18m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	7h 22m	96%	80%
United Details →	TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	6h 45m	100%	79%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 5575 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 16:03 → MSP 17:53UA 5871 · flown by SkyWest	6h 38m	100%	79%
American Details →	TVC 12:29 → ORD 13:00AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 15:43 → MSP 17:32AA 4425 · flown by Republic	6h 03m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest	57m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 12m	66%	52%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → MSP 12:17UA 5684 · flown by SkyWest	4h 17m	31%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON