Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3909 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3909 TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 5686 TVC 15:56 → ORD 16:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3909 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TVC 05:41	ORD 06:00	6%	3%	1.3%	94%
UA 5840 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 06:00	ORD 06:30	11%	6%	1.5%	69%
AA 4190 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TVC 12:29	ORD 13:00	16%	4%	1.5%	90%
AA 3772 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TVC 16:47	ORD 17:26	17%	5%	1.9%	85%
OO 5752 SkyWest	TVC 07:15	ORD 07:47	19%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 5748 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 09:00	ORD 09:30	23%	7%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
UA 2605 United Flight history →	TVC 14:18	ORD 14:45	23%	5%	1.0%	63%
UA 5575 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 12:15	ORD 12:45	23%	8%	1.6%	83%
AA 6379 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 14:55	ORD 15:30	25%	9%	1.7%	80%
AA 6380 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 19:53	ORD 20:44	28%	10%	1.7%	59%
UA 5469 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 18:29	ORD 19:00	28%	9%	1.8%	82%worse than usual
UA 5686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 15:56	ORD 16:30	29%	10%	1.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON