Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5430 at 12:09, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5430 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TVC 12:09	PHL 14:09	17%	6%	1.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	5h 01m	98%	89%
United Details →	TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:30UA 5840 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 09:06 → PHL 12:25UA 2752	6h 25m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	6h 18m	100%	84%
United Details →	TVC 09:00 → ORD 09:30UA 5748 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	5h 47m	100%	84%
American Details →	TVC 05:41 → ORD 06:00AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Chicago	ORD 08:29 → PHL 11:41AA 471	6h 00m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	5h 21m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	TVC 14:08 → DTW 15:19DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686	5h 17m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	TVC 11:54 → BOS 14:15DL 5861 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Boston	BOS 17:20 → PHL 19:15DL 5714 · flown by Republic	7h 21m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	5h 21m	65%	55%
American Details →	TVC 19:53 → ORD 20:44AA 6380 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490	5h 06m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON