Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3388 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3388 Southwest Flight history →	TYS 06:40	BNA 06:35	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 1768 Southwest Flight history →	TYS 19:45	BNA 19:40	28%	5%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069	4h 01m	98%	91%
United Details →	TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic	4h 56m	97%	88%
United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 00m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	4h 44m	91%	84%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → BNA 09:49AA 5083 · flown by PSA	5h 49m	96%	84%
American Details →	TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA	1h 39m Philadelphia	PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:51AA 3221	5h 51m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	4h 55m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor	3h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 48m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 10:26 → ATL 11:26DL 1290	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	4h 37m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TYS 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest	54m Chicago	ORD 15:49 → BNA 17:40UA 5665 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	68%	54%
American Details →	TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont	51m Philadelphia	PHL 21:30 → BNA 22:46AA 2277	5h 09m	67%	49%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:02 → LGA 13:07DL 5113 · flown by Endeavor	48m New York	LGA 13:55 → BNA 15:31DL 2748	5h 29m	63%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON