Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1077 at 07:30, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1077 Southwest Flight history →	TYS 07:30	BWI 09:05	5%	2%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	5h 07m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	TYS 10:26 → ATL 11:26DL 1290	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 27m	99%	84%
United Details →	TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → BWI 17:36UA 2124	7h 18m	100%	84%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → BWI 09:26AA 1635	4h 26m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 26m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	3h 55m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	7h 19m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	6h 34m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	5h 00m	93%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TYS 20:05 → CLT 21:32AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont	1h 13m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318	4h 09m	69%	49%
Southwest Details →	TYS 19:45 → BNA 19:40WN 1768	50m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → BWI 23:20WN 468	3h 35m	57%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON