Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5182 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Safest bet that day AA 5182 TYS 10:00 → CLT 11:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 6439 TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5182 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 10:00	CLT 11:17	10%	5%	1.8%	86%
AA 6439 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TYS 18:07	CLT 19:33	21%	7%	0.8%	69%
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 11:03	CLT 12:24	11%	6%	0.0%	89%
AA 5947 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 08:56	CLT 10:25	12%	2%	0.0%	88%
AA 5954 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 05:00	CLT 06:23	12%	5%	0.0%	88%
AA 5831 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 16:07	CLT 17:33	29%	9%	0.0%	71%
AA 5957 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 20:05	CLT 21:32	43%	7%	3.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON