tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2116 at 14:20, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2116 Southwest Flight history → TYS 14:20 DAL 15:35 17% 3% 0.6% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TYS 06:40 → BNA 06:35WN 3388 1h 30m Nashville BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486 4h 20m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441 4h 41m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → TYS 10:26 → ATL 11:26DL 1290 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 5h 37m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 4h 49m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 6h 57m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104 5h 20m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → TYS 16:20 → DEN 17:35WN 1645 2h 55m Denver DEN 20:30 → DAL 23:30WN 1523 8h 10m 96% 66%
SouthwestDetails → TYS 12:35 → MCO 14:20WN 4206 1h 40m Orlando MCO 16:00 → DAL 17:50WN 1402 6h 15m 99% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON