Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1256 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1256 TYS 08:48 → DEN 10:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1645 TYS 16:20 → DEN 17:35 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1256 United Flight history →	TYS 08:48	DEN 10:12	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 720 United Flight history →	TYS 16:56	DEN 18:20	15%	5%	0.7%	70%
F9 4369 Frontier Flight history →	TYS 20:19	DEN 21:42	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
WN 1645 Southwest Flight history →	TYS 16:20	DEN 17:35	23%	6%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON