Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 994 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 994 TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 644 TYS 20:11 → DFW 21:37 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 994 American Flight history →	TYS 05:37	DFW 07:06	7%	3%	1.1%	90%
AA 5425 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:01	DFW 08:34	13%	7%	1.3%	77%
AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 11:43	DFW 13:10	17%	7%	1.2%	79%
AA 2873 American Flight history →	TYS 13:54	DFW 15:24	19%	6%	0.9%	78%
AA 2876 American Flight history →	TYS 17:31	DFW 19:04	25%	7%	1.1%	54%
AA 644 American Flight history →	TYS 20:11	DFW 21:37	26%	6%	1.3%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON