tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 1396 at 07:10, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 1396 Allegiant Flight history → TYS 07:10 EWR 09:05 8% 5% 1.0% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 49m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 1h 37m Charlotte CLT 08:00 → EWR 09:59AA 1782 4h 59m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → TYS 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 2483 1h 41m Chicago ORD 08:40 → EWR 12:06UA 2301 6h 06m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 56m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 6h 11m 91% 81%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 59m Dulles IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 4h 10m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet 2h 07m Chicago ORD 13:30 → EWR 16:55UA 2759 6h 37m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 4h 46m 89% 77%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor 3h 50m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 7h 26m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 16:07 → CLT 17:33AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 48m Charlotte CLT 18:21 → EWR 20:30AA 1071 4h 23m 58% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON