tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4206 at 12:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4206 Southwest Flight history → TYS 12:35 MCO 14:20 15% 6% 16.4% 65%
G4 3024 Allegiant TYS 19:20 MCO 20:58 25% 12% 16.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TYS 06:40 → BNA 06:35WN 3388 2h 40m Nashville BNA 09:15 → MCO 12:10WN 4712 5h 30m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213 4h 16m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 3h 46m Charlotte CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074 6h 57m 97% 71%
SouthwestDetails → TYS 07:30 → BWI 09:05WN 1077 1h 25m Baltimore BWI 10:30 → MCO 12:50WN 1171 5h 20m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379 5h 23m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → TYS 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 2483 2h 13m Chicago ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643 7h 13m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 55m 93% 68%
UnitedDetails → TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet 1h 22m Chicago ORD 12:45 → MCO 16:43UA 1811 6h 25m 97% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TYS 07:15 → IAH 08:40UA 6298 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 5h 45m 63% 45%
SouthwestDetails → TYS 19:45 → BNA 19:40WN 1768 50m Nashville BNA 20:30 → MCO 23:35WN 572 3h 50m 57% 36%
AmericanDetails → TYS 20:05 → CLT 21:32AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont 57m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879 4h 12m 55% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON