tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2730 at 06:00, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2730 American Flight history → TYS 06:00 MIA 08:12 13% 4% 1.4% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 17m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 50m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436 6h 37m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA 2h 04m Philadelphia PHL 10:00 → MIA 12:59AA 796 6h 59m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 27m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 50m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912 6h 42m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → TYS 10:26 → ATL 11:26DL 1290 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 6h 29m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont 1h 16m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936 6h 15m 75% 50%
DeltaDetails → TYS 13:59 → ATL 15:08DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 55m Atlanta ATL 16:03 → MIA 18:20DL 1323 4h 21m 70% 49%
AmericanDetails → TYS 20:05 → CLT 21:32AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596 4h 41m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON