tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5523 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record TYS 06:45 MSP 08:18 8% 6% 0.8% 92%
DL 4803 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record TYS 18:42 MSP 20:17 39% 16% 0.0% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TYS 06:40 → BNA 06:35WN 3388 1h 35m Nashville BNA 08:10 → MSP 10:15WN 2160 4h 35m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960 5h 38m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36UA 3649 · flown by Republic 5h 51m 94% 87%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 08:25 → MSP 10:04AA 2154 6h 04m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → TYS 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 2483 1h 51m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 5h 36m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA 2h 44m Philadelphia PHL 10:40 → MSP 12:38AA 5658 · flown by PSA 7h 38m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TYS 07:02 → ORD 08:10AA 6216 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Chicago ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy 7h 30m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet 3h 07m Chicago ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298 6h 55m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TYS 12:10 → IAH 13:32UA 6299 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 14:20 → MSP 17:12UA 2150 6h 02m 75% 61%
AmericanDetails → TYS 17:31 → DFW 19:04AA 2876 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → MSP 22:26AA 2978 5h 55m 75% 52%
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:25 → DTW 19:14DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 52m Detroit DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303 4h 35m 61% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON