Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2483 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2483 TYS 06:00 → ORD 06:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3783 TYS 18:32 → ORD 19:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2483 United Flight history →	TYS 06:00	ORD 06:59	5%	3%	0.9%	97%
AA 6216 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TYS 07:02	ORD 08:10	12%	6%	1.6%	88%
AA 6445 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TYS 11:35	ORD 12:38	19%	7%	1.2%	75%
AA 5014 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TYS 13:00	ORD 13:59	24%	8%	1.1%	71%
UA 5617 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TYS 13:54	ORD 14:55	25%	9%	1.1%	63%
UA 6000 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TYS 17:45	ORD 18:55	25%	9%	1.3%	77%
AA 3783 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TYS 18:32	ORD 19:50	28%	6%	1.6%	57%
UA 4584 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 10:18	ORD 11:23	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON