Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2451 VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2832 VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2451 Delta Flight history →	VPS 07:00	ATL 09:18	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	VPS 09:21	ATL 11:34	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	VPS 11:15	ATL 13:35	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 3085 Delta Flight history →	VPS 06:00	ATL 08:15	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2803 Delta Flight history →	VPS 19:32	ATL 21:59	14%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 3092 Delta Flight history →	VPS 13:28	ATL 15:45	15%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 3083 Delta Flight history →	VPS 17:06	ATL 19:30	15%	4%	0.8%	77%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	VPS 14:45	ATL 17:04	15%	4%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON