Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4062 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4062 Southwest Flight history →	VPS 07:55	BNA 09:25	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 4108 Southwest Flight history →	VPS 18:05	BNA 19:35	16%	5%	0.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	4h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155	4h 10m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	4h 42m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	6h 09m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	4h 11m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	VPS 13:28 → ATL 15:45DL 3092	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	5h 24m	96%	77%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:00 → BNA 11:53AA 1520	5h 23m	94%	76%
American Details →	VPS 16:53 → CLT 19:45AA 2909	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 21:59 → BNA 22:25AA 1644	5h 32m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON