Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4063 at 14:00, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4063 Southwest Flight history →	VPS 14:00	BWI 17:15	17%	3%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 01m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	VPS 07:55 → BNA 09:25WN 4062	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 12:05 → BWI 14:55WN 1345	6h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 32m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 55m	99%	81%
American Details →	VPS 11:32 → ORD 14:14AA 4153 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 16:29 → BWI 19:42AA 4717 · flown by Republic	7h 10m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	6h 33m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928	6h 08m	99%	79%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → BWI 14:56AA 1629	7h 26m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON