Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: G4 386 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G4 386 Allegiant Flight history →	VPS 08:39	CVG 11:32	15%	5%	0.7%	90%
G4 2001 Allegiant Flight history →	VPS 20:39	CVG 23:32	25%	8%	0.8%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	4h 25m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:11 → CVG 12:34DL 3149	4h 34m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 33m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	6h 20m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 13:28 → ATL 15:45DL 3092	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248	6h 33m	98%	80%
American Details →	VPS 11:32 → ORD 14:14AA 4153 · flown by Envoy	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 15:23 → CVG 17:55AA 3950 · flown by Envoy	5h 23m	90%	73%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 10:09AA 5661 · flown by PSA	1h 26m Charlotte	CLT 11:35 → CVG 13:13AA 5556 · flown by PSA	4h 59m	91%	72%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:45 → CVG 13:05AA 1710	5h 35m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON