Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4353 Southwest Flight history →	VPS 10:05	DAL 12:05	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 4682 Southwest Flight history →	VPS 16:35	DAL 18:35	17%	5%	0.6%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	VPS 07:55 → BNA 09:25WN 4062	2h 55m Nashville	BNA 12:20 → DAL 14:15WN 5046	6h 20m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 24m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	5h 42m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 39m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 19m	94%	72%
Southwest Details →	VPS 14:00 → BWI 17:15WN 4063	2h 45m Baltimore	BWI 20:00 → DAL 22:10WN 693	8h 10m	97%	68%
Southwest Details →	VPS 12:30 → STL 14:25WN 4065	3h 05m St Louis	STL 17:30 → DAL 19:10WN 1417	6h 40m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON