Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3224 at 13:00, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3224 American Flight history →	VPS 13:00	DCA 16:15	25%	7%	0.8%	42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 27m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	VPS 07:55 → BNA 09:25WN 4062	1h 50m Nashville	BNA 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 4562	5h 05m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	4h 42m	98%	82%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Miami	MIA 11:59 → DCA 14:44AA 1606	7h 44m	99%	79%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	6h 29m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 35m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 46m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	5h 15m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON