Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3988 at 20:00, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3988 Southwest Flight history →	VPS 20:00	HOU 21:50	20%	5%	0.9%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	5h 10m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	VPS 07:55 → BNA 09:25WN 4062	2h 15m Nashville	BNA 11:40 → HOU 13:40WN 5055	5h 45m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 01m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	VPS 10:05 → DAL 12:05WN 4353	3h 25m Dallas	DAL 15:30 → HOU 16:50WN 37	6h 45m	100%	77%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	5h 46m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 06m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	VPS 12:30 → STL 14:25WN 4065	3h 15m St Louis	STL 17:40 → HOU 19:45WN 5065	7h 15m	100%	75%
American Details →	VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460	3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy	7h 35m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 19:33 → DFW 21:50AA 2673	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	4h 23m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON