Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 2012 at 09:59, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 2012 JetBlue Flight history →	VPS 09:59	JFK 13:49	11%	4%	1.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	5h 20m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034	5h 00m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	6h 08m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378	7h 33m	99%	80%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	1h 09m Miami	MIA 09:55 → JFK 13:04AA 1052	6h 04m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	VPS 13:28 → ATL 15:45DL 3092	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	7h 01m	97%	78%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → JFK 16:30AA 481	9h 00m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	7h 24m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON