tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4301 at 06:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4301 American flown by Envoy Flight history → VPS 06:00 MIA 08:46 11% 5% 1.5% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 02m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 8h 17m 96% 74%
SouthwestDetails → VPS 07:55 → BNA 09:25WN 4062 2h 05m Nashville BNA 11:30 → MIA 14:50WN 581 5h 55m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 49m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 6h 34m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:03 → MIA 18:20DL 1323 6h 05m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 10:09AA 5661 · flown by PSA 3h 21m Charlotte CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912 7h 24m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → VPS 16:53 → CLT 19:45AA 2909 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596 6h 53m 97% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON