Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4153 at 11:32, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4153 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	VPS 11:32	ORD 14:14	15%	4%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	5h 34m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 47m	99%	80%
American Details →	VPS 16:53 → CLT 19:45AA 2909	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → ORD 00:01 +1AA 3014	7h 08m	97%	79%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → ORD 13:25AA 3330	6h 55m	96%	77%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 10:09AA 5661 · flown by PSA	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ORD 14:20AA 836	7h 06m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	4h 53m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563	7h 34m	100%	74%
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346	8h 06m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424	5h 49m	74%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON