tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4065 at 12:30, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4065 Southwest Flight history → VPS 12:30 STL 14:25 14% 2% 0.5% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 5h 17m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700 5h 27m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → VPS 07:55 → BNA 09:25WN 4062 3h 40m Nashville BNA 13:05 → STL 14:20WN 1371 6h 25m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → VPS 17:06 → ATL 19:30DL 3083 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 47m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 38m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → VPS 11:32 → ORD 14:14AA 4153 · flown by Envoy 1h 59m Chicago ORD 16:13 → STL 17:46AA 4537 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → VPS 16:53 → CLT 19:45AA 2909 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 7h 05m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → STL 12:44AA 5655 · flown by PSA 6h 14m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → VPS 20:00 → HOU 21:50WN 3988 50m Houston HOU 22:40 → STL 00:45 +1WN 2087 4h 45m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON