Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2192 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2192 BWI 06:15 → SFO 09:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1101 BWI 14:50 → SFO 17:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 22% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 06:15	SFO 09:05	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 367 United Flight history →	IAD 22:21	SFO 01:15	13%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	17%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 2075 United Flight history →	IAD 20:00	SFO 22:51	20%	8%	0.6%	52%
WN 186 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:50	SJC 15:25	20%	4%	0.6%	51%
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	25%	9%	0.6%	56%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	27%	10%	0.5%	60%
UA 368 United Flight history →	DCA 17:59	SFO 20:55	27%	9%	0.6%	55%
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	34%	11%	0.8%	69%
WN 1101 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:50	SFO 17:30	34%	11%	0.5%	22%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	8h 05m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	1h 40m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	7h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON