tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 49 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4659 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4659 BWI 05:36 → ORD 06:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 5450 DCA 20:00 → ORD 21:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 4659 American flown by Republic Flight history → BWI 05:36 ORD 06:59 4% 2% 1.0% 91%
WN 995 Southwest Flight history → BWI 06:10 MDW 07:10 5% 1% 0.6% 89%
UA 1793 United Flight history → DCA 06:30 ORD 07:46 5% 2% 1.0% 92%
UA 1252 United Flight history → IAD 10:31 ORD 11:53 6% 4% 0.6% 92%
WN 1442 Southwest Flight history → DCA 07:30 MDW 08:25 6% 2% 0.8% 88%
UA 2070 United Flight history → IAD 06:10 ORD 07:27 6% 3% 0.6% 84%
UA 704 United Flight history → BWI 10:32 ORD 11:48 7% 3% 0.6% 90%
UA 709 United Flight history → BWI 06:15 ORD 07:30 7% 3% 0.6% 81%
UA 1775 United Flight history → IAD 08:15 ORD 09:36 8% 4% 0.6% 84%
UA 2201 United Flight history → DCA 10:30 ORD 11:48 8% 3% 0.9% 91%
UA 2638 United Flight history → DCA 07:15 ORD 08:28 8% 3% 1.0% 90%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BWI 10:28 ORD 11:43 9% 3% 1.0% 92%
UA 2774 United Flight history → DCA 09:30 ORD 10:50 9% 3% 1.3% 94%
UA 1061 United Flight history → DCA 08:25 ORD 09:43 9% 3% 0.9% 93%
WN 4217 Southwest Flight history → BWI 09:35 MDW 10:35 10% 2% 0.6% 68%
AA 4360 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:23 ORD 10:00 10% 3% 1.1% 86%
UA 1738 United Flight history → IAD 22:20 ORD 23:31 11% 4% 0.6% 80%
AA 523 American Flight history → DCA 10:13 ORD 11:33 11% 5% 1.3% 78%
UA 2749 United Flight history → BWI 08:16 ORD 09:30 11% 4% 0.6% 86%
UA 374 United Flight history → DCA 11:57 ORD 13:15 11% 5% 0.9% 85%
AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 22:10 ORD 23:30 11% 4% 1.6% 75%
WN 1444 Southwest Flight history → DCA 09:25 MDW 10:20 12% 2% 0.8% 86%
AA 489 American Flight history → DCA 11:35 ORD 12:53 12% 6% 1.1% 83%
AA 2304 American Flight history → DCA 07:43 ORD 09:00 12% 4% 1.1% 83%
UA 2331 United Flight history → IAD 13:15 ORD 14:29 13% 5% 0.6% 81%
UA 511 United Flight history → DCA 13:00 ORD 14:18 13% 5% 0.9% 76%
UA 1888 United Flight history → DCA 14:00 ORD 15:18 14% 5% 0.9% 71%
WN 1445 Southwest Flight history → DCA 12:00 MDW 13:00 15% 3% 0.8% 85%
UA 1393 United Flight history → IAD 15:39 ORD 17:02 15% 6% 0.6% 64%
WN 435 Southwest Flight history → BWI 12:30 MDW 13:30 15% 3% 0.6% 69%
AA 2398 American Flight history → DCA 13:59 ORD 15:23 15% 8% 1.1% 61%
UA 1325 United Flight history → DCA 15:30 ORD 16:52 16% 5% 0.9% 66%
WN 4479 Southwest Flight history → DCA 15:35 MDW 16:45 17% 5% 0.8% 62%
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history → BWI 20:13 ORD 21:44 17% 6% 1.6% 68%
AA 3254 American Flight history → DCA 15:57 ORD 17:29 18% 8% 1.4% 73%
WN 997 Southwest Flight history → BWI 16:05 MDW 17:10 20% 4% 0.6% 66%
WN 1448 Southwest Flight history → DCA 21:00 MDW 22:05 20% 7% 0.8% 46%
AA 2903 American Flight history → DCA 20:06 ORD 21:42 20% 7% 1.3% 77%
UA 2148 United Flight history → DCA 18:10 ORD 19:32 20% 5% 0.9% 51%
WN 1447 Southwest Flight history → DCA 19:05 MDW 20:15 20% 7% 0.8% 38%
UA 791 United Flight history → BWI 18:38 ORD 20:02 22% 7% 0.6% 53%
UA 654 United Flight history → DCA 17:05 ORD 18:30 22% 6% 0.9% 50%
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history → BWI 19:00 MDW 20:05 22% 6% 0.7% 73%
UA 1193 United Flight history → DCA 19:10 ORD 20:32 22% 5% 0.9% 58%
AA 1630 American Flight history → DCA 17:22 ORD 18:54 24% 9% 1.1% 64%
UA 590 United Flight history → BWI 17:32 ORD 18:55 24% 6% 0.6% 57%
UA 2497 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 ORD 18:50 24% 7% 0.6% 48%
WN 999 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:55 MDW 22:00 25% 6% 0.6% 28%
UA 5450 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DCA 20:00 ORD 21:35 25% 10% 2.0% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON