Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2243 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2243 DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1403 DCA 17:20 → DAL 19:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2243 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	DFW 07:22	4%	2%	0.9%	93%
WN 1268 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:10	DAL 08:10	4%	1%	0.7%	89%
WN 4403 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:50	DAL 08:55	5%	1%	0.6%	83%
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	5%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	7%	3%	0.8%	84%
WN 930 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:15	DAL 10:25	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 2471 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	DFW 10:53	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	7%	3%	0.8%	85%
WN 931 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:35	DAL 11:45	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DCA 10:00	DFW 12:21	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 1906 American Flight history →	IAD 11:59	DFW 14:17	11%	4%	0.8%	79%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	11%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	12%	3%	0.8%	85%
WN 1394 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 09:05	DAL 11:10	13%	3%	0.7%	73%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	13%	6%	0.6%	72%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	13%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	DFW 14:23	14%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	14%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 2747 American Flight history →	BWI 12:00	DFW 14:27	15%	6%	0.8%	93%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	18%	7%	0.9%	65%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	IAD 19:31	DFW 21:50	19%	6%	0.8%	51%
WN 932 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:15	DAL 16:15	19%	5%	0.6%	62%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 19:08	DFW 21:34	20%	7%	1.0%	61%
F9 3787 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 14:25	DFW 16:58	22%	10%	0.7%	69%
WN 3660 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 14:00	DAL 16:10	25%	5%	0.7%	58%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	BWI 15:46	DFW 18:12	25%	8%	0.8%	57%
WN 4365 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:20	DAL 20:30	28%	8%	0.6%	38%
WN 693 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:00	DAL 22:10	29%	9%	0.6%	43%
AA 1626 American Flight history →	BWI 19:17	DFW 21:42	29%	7%	1.0%	52%
WN 4377 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 20:35	DAL 22:50	36%	8%	0.7%	38%
WN 1403 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 17:20	DAL 19:30	37%	7%	0.7%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON