Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1868 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1868 IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 200 BWI 20:10 → ONT 22:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1868 United Flight history →	IAD 09:10	LAX 11:39	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2318 United Flight history →	BWI 07:00	LAX 09:29	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	LAX 10:47	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	12%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 325 United Flight history →	IAD 07:00	LAX 09:26	12%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 1225 American Flight history →	IAD 06:20	LAX 08:54	13%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 4322 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	LAX 09:35	14%	2%	0.6%	65%
UA 1385 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	LAX 00:57	15%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	16%	6%	0.9%	75%
UA 413 United Flight history →	IAD 20:18	LAX 22:55	17%	4%	0.6%	82%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	17%	3%	0.8%	71%
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	LAX 21:28	17%	7%	0.6%	66%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	20%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	22%	7%	0.7%	70%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	LAX 16:15	25%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 980 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:10	LAX 22:40	33%	10%	0.6%	47%
WN 200 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:10	ONT 22:25	35%	10%	0.6%	48%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	7h 30m	100%	89%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	51m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383	7h 29m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON