tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 45 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2959 IAD 18:09 → FLL 20:52 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1178 American Flight history → DCA 05:00 MIA 07:56 5% 2% 1.3% 93%
AA 401 American Flight history → DCA 06:02 MIA 08:50 6% 2% 1.3% 93%
WN 4627 Southwest Flight history → BWI 06:15 FLL 08:55 7% 1% 0.8% 95%
B6 379 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 06:00 FLL 08:32 10% 4% 1.2% 77%
WN 4028 Southwest Flight history → BWI 07:25 FLL 09:55 10% 2% 0.9% 100%worse than usual
AA 1183 American Flight history → BWI 06:00 MIA 08:46 11% 3% 1.3% 87%
UA 1073 United Flight history → IAD 08:45 MIA 11:35 12% 4% 1.4% 87%
AA 4431 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:00 PBI 10:49 12% 2% 1.0% 78%
UA 1825 United Flight history → IAD 08:20 FLL 11:07 13% 3% 0.8% 89%
B6 1795 JetBlue Flight history → BWI 06:09 FLL 08:50 13% 4% 1.3% 86%
WN 1041 Southwest Flight history → BWI 08:15 PBI 10:50 14% 3% 1.2% 89%
AA 422 American Flight history → DCA 08:20 MIA 11:17 15% 4% 1.4% 84%
WN 4785 Southwest Flight history → BWI 09:50 FLL 12:20 15% 4% 0.8% 85%
WN 945 Southwest Flight history → BWI 08:25 FLL 11:05 16% 3% 0.9% 82%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 07:59 FLL 10:40 16% 5% 1.2% 81%
AA 1873 American Flight history → DCA 08:20 FLL 11:01 17% 4% 1.1% 72%
WN 3278 Southwest Flight history → BWI 08:20 MIA 11:00 19% 3% 1.0% 80%
AA 1173 American Flight history → DCA 09:55 MIA 12:38 20% 5% 2.6% 88%
B6 2433 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 09:55 PBI 12:23 22% 7% 1.5% 82%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history → BWI 08:00 FLL 10:41 24% 5% 1.6% 80%
WN 1044 Southwest Flight history → BWI 11:35 PBI 14:05 25% 7% 6.2% 79%
UA 1379 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 FLL 20:32 26% 9% 2.5% 81%
AA 2281 American Flight history → DCA 11:59 PBI 14:28 26% 8% 6.1% 71%
AA 1627 American Flight history → DCA 11:55 MIA 14:38 27% 6% 2.1% 76%
AA 2664 American Flight history → DCA 14:59 MIA 17:48 29% 11% 1.3% 75%
AA 2915 American Flight history → DCA 13:44 MIA 16:29 29% 10% 1.4% 70%
WN 4735 Southwest Flight history → BWI 18:25 FLL 21:15 30% 10% 3.4% 53%
AA 1233 American Flight history → DCA 20:40 MIA 23:28 30% 11% 1.4% 63%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history → DCA 14:43 MIA 17:33 30% 12% 1.1% 67%
WN 1045 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:40 PBI 23:20 31% 10% 1.9% 64%
WN 947 Southwest Flight history → BWI 17:00 FLL 19:45 31% 10% 2.0% 50%
WN 4737 Southwest Flight history → BWI 11:45 MIA 14:20 31% 7% 1.7% 80%worse than usual
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history → BWI 16:00 FLL 18:41 32% 14% 2.2% 57%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history → BWI 13:05 FLL 15:47 33% 11% 2.8% 59%
WN 4562 Southwest Flight history → DCA 14:35 FLL 17:15 33% 10% 1.4% 28%
WN 3072 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:15 FLL 22:55 34% 10% 2.6% 50%
WN 235 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:30 MIA 23:20 34% 9% 1.0% 50%
AA 3244 American Flight history → DCA 18:55 MIA 21:45 35% 12% 1.5% 49%
AA 1619 American Flight history → BWI 18:39 MIA 21:25 36% 10% 1.7% 64%
AA 1612 American Flight history → DCA 17:40 MIA 20:34 36% 12% 1.7% 62%
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history → BWI 19:27 MIA 22:19 37% 17% 2.6% 67%
B6 23 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 18:00 PBI 20:35 37% 20% 2.7% 61%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 15:10 FLL 17:51 38% 15% 1.9% 61%
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 20:55 FLL 23:30 46% 18% 2.9% 56%
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history → IAD 18:09 FLL 20:52 52% 19% 4.9% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON