Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3905 XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 4442 XNA 15:25 → ATL 18:21 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3905 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 06:00	ATL 09:00	9%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 4082 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 11:57	ATL 14:50	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 2771 Delta Flight history →	XNA 18:56	ATL 22:00	14%	6%	0.6%	63%
DL 4442 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 15:25	ATL 18:21	16%	6%	0.6%	59%
DL 5497 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 07:20	ATL 10:17	13%	8%	1.4%	87%
DL 5339 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 09:39	ATL 12:34	17%	6%	1.4%	83%
DL 5275 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 08:20	ATL 11:15	25%	19%	3.6%	75%
DL 5126 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 17:59	ATL 20:55	41%	26%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON