Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3871 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 3871 XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5443 XNA 18:23 → CLT 21:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3871 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:51	CLT 12:12	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 5446 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 11:07	CLT 14:30	11%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 5444 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 13:42	CLT 17:09	13%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 5443 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 18:23	CLT 21:50	17%	6%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON