Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3824 at 07:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3824 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:00	DCA 10:39	10%	2%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic	7h 53m	97%	86%
United Details →	XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	8h 09m	98%	85%
United Details →	XNA 07:20 → ORD 09:30UA 5853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	7h 32m	100%	83%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	3h 34m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 33m	100%	83%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	7h 59m	98%	83%
American Details →	XNA 06:00 → LGA 10:06AA 4695 · flown by Republic	3h 22m New York	LGA 13:28 → DCA 14:56AA 4590 · flown by Republic	7h 56m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	5h 42m	96%	80%
American Details →	XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 46m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	XNA 17:24 → DTW 20:37DL 4895 · flown by Endeavor	47m Detroit	DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073	4h 35m	69%	54%
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369	5h 14m	69%	51%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 53m	59%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON