Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3838 at 10:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3838 XNA 10:54 → DFW 12:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1804 XNA 17:47 → DFW 19:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3838 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 10:54	DFW 12:19	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 3614 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:00	DFW 06:20	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1753 American Flight history →	XNA 06:10	DFW 07:39	10%	5%	1.0%	82%
AA 5442 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 09:10	DFW 10:39	12%	6%	1.3%	82%
AA 3847 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:47	DFW 16:16	13%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 3985 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:13	DFW 08:45	15%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 3275 American Flight history →	XNA 11:59	DFW 13:20	16%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 15:57	DFW 17:26	16%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 3843 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 20:22	DFW 21:49	16%	6%	0.8%	63%
AA 3274 American Flight history →	XNA 18:57	DFW 20:29	25%	11%	0.9%	52%
AA 1804 American Flight history →	XNA 17:47	DFW 19:15	27%	12%	0.9%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON