Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4895 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 17:24	DTW 20:36	24%	13%	0.3%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5969 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	7h 37m	98%	86%
United Details →	XNA 09:00 → IAH 11:00UA 5803 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Houston	IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa	7h 59m	97%	85%
American Details →	XNA 06:08 → PHL 09:59AA 1015	3h 59m Philadelphia	PHL 13:58 → DTW 15:54AA 5427 · flown by PSA	8h 46m	100%	85%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	1h 24m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	6h 12m	94%	84%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → DTW 13:04AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	97%	83%
American Details →	XNA 09:14 → ORD 11:11AA 3839 · flown by Envoy	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 15:06 → DTW 17:41AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3905 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 56m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 22m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor	50m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651	4h 45m	56%	41%
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	46m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → DTW 20:22UA 5232 · flown by SkyWest	4h 26m	52%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON