Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5803 XNA 09:00 → IAH 11:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 5859 XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 09:00	IAH 11:00	11%	5%	0.7%	85%
OO 5859 SkyWest	XNA 11:47	IAH 13:37	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4051 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 06:30	IAH 08:21	14%	3%	0.0%	86%
UA 6290 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 17:12	IAH 19:05	17%	8%	0.0%	83%
UA 4338 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 11:47	IAH 13:37	25%	13%	0.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON